184
FXUS66 KLOX 111105
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
305 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...10/807 PM.

Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue into much of next week, mainly
across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. There will be a warming
trend into next week with near record temperatures possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...11/303 AM.

A positive Pacific-North-American oscillation (PNA) will dominate
our large-scale pattern likely for at least the next 7 days.
Continuous troughing near the Aleutian islands and to the south
will support persistent downstream ridging over the western CONUS.
A positvely-tilted trough over these waters will amplify and
become quite sharp over the next couple of days. This will allow
heights to rise over the region especially by Tuesday.

Gradients will respond to this upper-level pattern accordingly.
LAX-DAG values indicated by ECWMF ENS projections should start
around -7mb this morning. Offshore flow from the northeast should
gradually weaken through Tuesday evening to -3mb. LAX-BFL gradient
is projected to increase a bit more this morning to -6mb, then is
expected to gradually increase by Tuesday afternoon.

Considering these values the current wind products out until 1PM
will likely be extended or replaced with a lower tier product such
as an wind advisory. The day shift will make this determination.
Please see LAXNPWLOX for current details regarding the products.

Max Temps should be warmer than yesterday. Coasts and Valleys in
the uppers 60s to low 70s, and interior locations mid 50s to lower
60s. Some of the highest elevations could remain in the 40s.
Expecting 2 to 5 degrees of warming each day. Max Temps on Tuesday
are currently forecasted at 70s to 80s for coasts/valleys, and
60s to 70s for interior locations. Warmest across LA/VTA counties.
Min Temps will also follow this warming pattern.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...11/303 AM.

Light to moderate offshore flow with warm weather and clear skies
is expected through the forecast period. Above normal heights will
combine with these gradient values best on Wednesday and Thursday.
Records for coast and valleys generally range from the mid 80s to
low 90s during this period and could be challenged. In any case,
highs will be around 10-15 degrees above normal most of the week.
Upper-level support looks anemic during this period, but areas
favored for northeast winds will likely be breezy overnight into
the morning hours.

AI mdls indicate a small signal for rain after the 21th of Jan.

&&

.AVIATION...11/0932Z.

At 0930Z at KLAX, there was a surface-based inversion. The top of
the inversion was 800 feet with a temperature of 17 degrees
Celsius.

Overall, high confidence in 12Z TAF package as VFR conditions are
expected through the period.

Gusty northeasterly winds will generate light to occasional
moderate turbulence and LLWS across the foothills and mountains.

KLAX...High confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 10% chance of
easterly winds reaching 8 knots 12Z-21Z.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a chance of light to
moderate turbulence and LLWS through the period.

&&

.MARINE...11/132 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today
through Thursday, winds and seas are expected to remain below
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels from the Channel Islands
northward. For the waters south of the Channel Islands, SCA level
northeast winds are likely today through Monday with winds and
seas expected to remain below SCA levels Tuesday through Thursday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. For today, SCA level northeast wind are expected
through this morning, mainly from Morro Bay northward, but will
diminish below SCA levels this afternoon. For tonight through
Thursday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. From Ventura southward to Santa
Monica, SCA level winds are expected today through Monday with
local Gale force gusts today from Point Mugu to Point Dume. For
Monday night and Tuesday, there is a 40% chance of SCA level
northeast winds from Ventura southward to Santa Monica. Otherwise,
winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through
Thursday.

The winds will cause choppy hazardous seas, especially farther
from shore, and will persist each day through at least Tuesday.
Winds will be the strongest winds in the late night through morning
hours, especially this morning. The winds will also impact the
Channel & Catalina Islands, causing steep easterly seas to affect
east facing harbors. In addition, these winds will affect the
waters from Santa Cruz Island to San Nicolas Island today and
possibly through early this week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 1 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>372-374-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 1 PM PST this afternoon for
      zone 369. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect until 1 PM PST this
      afternoon for zones 375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST this morning
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Black
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office